It’s been a rough Friday morning on Wall Street for risk assets. A ramping up of U.S./China tensions has stocks on their back foot going into the holiday weekend. Just over the midway point of the U.S. session, the DJIA DOW (-98), S&P 500 SPX (-3), and NASDAQ (+11) are mixed. Conversely, the USD is on the march against many of the majors, specifically the European currencies.
As my FX Leaders colleagues have addressed throughout the session, U.S./China tensions are driving today’s negative market sentiment. The possible delisting of Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges, China’s pending action against Hong Kong, and questions over Chinese GDP are capping performance.
Given the uncertainty provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, it would be a surprise to see investors assume fresh risk ahead of the three-day break. Subsequently, gold and safe-haven currencies are performing well. Additionally, it looks like the USD is gaining favor among forex players amid a vacant economic calendar.
USD Holds Firm Vs The Safe-Havens
The USD has held its own against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc today, fighting to a near stalemate. As evidenced by the daily USD/JPY chart, a Doji candlestick may be in the process of forming.
Here are two key support levels to watch in this market:
- Support(1): Bollinger MP, 107.15
- Support(2): Daily SMA, 107.13
Overview: Currently, a moderate bullish bias is warranted toward the USD/JPY. Rates are above the 50% Fibonacci COVID-19 Retracement (106.44) level and grinding north. In addition, any bad news on the coronavirus front over the weekend is likely to send bids to both the USD and JPY. Given the technical and fundamental outlooks, this pair is highly likely to stay put until the middle of next week.